US Midterms: Six Things to Watch as Voters Decide Control of Congress on Tuesday
Reuters' Election Day watch list runs from the four-seat math in both chambers to the roughly 1,000 Justice Department monitors, the president's response, turnout among the voters Democrats most need, and whether the Republicans' money advantage - $366 million from Elon Musk and $277 million from the president's super PAC - actually bought anything.
The math is the first thing to watch. Americans head to the polls on Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term, Reuters reported in a file opened and read directly by the desk this run. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in both chambers to overturn Republicans' narrow 218-214 House and 53-47 Senate majorities; they are widely expected to reclaim the House, Reuters reported, but the Senate battle remains highly competitive and will likely hinge on six to eight races, including Republican-held seats in Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas and a Kansas race that has become competitive despite Trump's 16-point win there in 2024. Early results from Republican-held House seats in Florida and Virginia could provide the first clues to the size of any Democratic gains.
The count itself is the second watch. Election officials have warned that close races could spark disputes over voter eligibility, ballot counting and certification, and Trump's Justice Department plans to deploy about 1,000 monitors nationwide on Election Day - roughly triple the number used in the last midterms - a move some local officials worry could intimidate voters, although the department says those fears are baseless, Reuters reported. Several states are also unlikely to produce complete results on election night, especially in close races.
The president's response is the third. In the early hours of November 4, 2020, before counting had finished in several states, Trump declared victory and called for counting to stop, Reuters recalled; he still falsely claims he won the 2020 election and has cast doubt on the integrity of these midterms, raising the prospect of challenges if his party loses one or both chambers. Democratic wins would likely trigger investigations into the administration, Reuters reported, while a stronger-than-expected Republican showing could reinforce Trump's grip on his party.
Turnout and money close the list. Opinion polls showed Democrats significantly more enthusiastic about voting heading into Election Day, but strategists caution that young, Black and Hispanic voters - core Democratic constituencies - have historically turned out at lower rates in midterms, Reuters reported. And Republicans held a significant financial advantage: Trump spent more than $277 million, mostly through his MAGA Inc. super PAC, on a late advertising blitz, according to Federal Election Commission data cited by Reuters, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk spent roughly $366 million during the cycle, including $276 million since July, to support Republican candidates. Whether that advantage mattered more than prices and the Iran war is a question Tuesday answers.
