Florida Governor Race Is Essentially Tied Among Decided Voters in a New Poll; Moody Leads for Senate and Amendment 3 Sits Below Its 60 Percent Bar
A Political Matrix / Listener Group survey of 500 likely Florida voters, conducted Oct. 26-28, puts Byron Donalds at 40.3 percent and David Jolly at 38.8 percent for governor, with 20.9 percent undecided — a 50.9-to-49.1 split among voters who have chosen. Ashley Moody leads the Senate special election 41.8 to 35.8, and Amendment 3 draws 32.8 percent support against the 60 percent it needs.
Florida's race for governor is essentially tied among voters who have made up their minds, two days before Election Day. A new survey of 500 likely Florida voters conducted by Political Matrix and The Listener Group, divisions of Palafox Media Network, found Republican Byron Donalds at 40.3 percent and Democrat David Jolly at 38.8 percent among all respondents, with 20.9 percent undecided, the pollsters reported in a release opened by the desk this run. Among decided voters, Donalds leads 50.9 percent to 49.1 percent. The race succeeds term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The crosstabs show how much room is left. Donalds wins 56.2 percent of Republicans, with 15.6 percent of Republicans undecided; Jolly takes 50.0 percent of Democrats, with 26.7 percent of Democrats undecided; and no-party-affiliation voters split evenly at 40 percent for each candidate, the release states. The survey was conducted October 26-28, 2026, and its margin of error is plus or minus 4.38 percent, the pollsters state — a band inside which the headline governor numbers sit.
In the special election to fill the remainder of former Sen. Marco Rubio's term, Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 41.8 percent to 35.8 percent, with 22.4 percent undecided; among decided voters, Moody's advantage is 53.8 percent to 46.2 percent, the release states. Moody receives 62.5 percent of Republican support and 60.0 percent of no-party voters, while Nixon leads among Democrats at 43.3 percent, with 40.0 percent of Democrats undecided.
Amendment 3 faces the steepest climb. The measure, which would raise the non-school homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, along with other property-tax changes, receives 32.8 percent support overall, with 31.3 percent opposed and 35.8 percent undecided, the release states. Among decided voters, Yes leads 51.2 percent to 48.8 percent — well short of the 60 percent support Florida requires for passage. The pollsters' own summary is the cautious one: undecided voters will play a decisive role across all three contests on Tuesday, Nov. 3. A poll is a survey, not a result; Duval County voters decide at their assigned precincts on Election Day, 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
