Florida Governor Race Polls: Donalds Leads Jolly by 2 to 4 Points on Election Eve, and Moody's Senate Lead Is Wider
Florida's two statewide races reach Election Day in different shapes: the open governor's race between Byron Donalds and David Jolly is inside the margin of error in two of the final three polls, while Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon by 4 to 8 points in every closing survey for the Senate special election.
Florida votes on Tuesday with one statewide race genuinely in doubt and one leaning the incumbent's way, according to the final polls compiled by Action Network in a page opened and read directly by the desk this run. In the governor's race, Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 2 to 4 points across the closing surveys: the University of North Florida had Donalds up 49-47, St. Pete Polls (fielded Oct. 25-27) showed 47.8 to 45.5 - inside its 3.2-point margin of error - and Siena put the race at 48-44.
The Senate special election is steadier. Appointed incumbent Ashley Moody leads Jacksonville's own Rep. Angie Nixon by 4 to 8 points in every closing poll the compilation lists: Siena 50-44, Echelon Insights 51-43, RedBox Research 50-43, and both UNF and St. Pete Polls at 49-45. The winner serves the remainder of Marco Rubio's term, through January 2029. Florida has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012.
Two numbers explain why the governor's race tightened late. Money is not one of them: Donalds has raised more than $140 million against roughly $20 million for Jolly, by MultiState's count in the compilation. The movement is independents - UNF shows voters outside the two major parties breaking for Jolly by 16 points in the governor's race, and Nixon leads among independents as well (by 15 in UNF's survey and 52-38 in Siena's). Jolly, a former Republican congressman who joined the Democratic Party in 2025, would be Florida's first elected Democratic governor since 1994.
The early vote is already banked: more than 4.2 million Florida ballots were in as of Friday, with Republicans at 40.4 percent and Democrats at 38.5 percent of the returned vote, per the OnPoint tracker cited in the compilation - Duval County's own early-vote close, more than 230,000 ballots, is the desk's published file SQ-20261101-080. What is left is Tuesday: polls run 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and in Duval every voter votes at their assigned precinct.
