Final Stetson Poll: Donalds and Moody Still Lead in Florida, but Both Races Have Tightened

Florida's statewide races go into the final weekend closer than they were two weeks ago. Stetson University's Center for Public Opinion Research, in its final pre-election survey, finds Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 51 percent to 45 percent in the race for governor among modeled likely voters, and Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon 49 percent to 45 percent in the Senate race.

The survey of 1,000 Florida adults, including 861 registered voters, was conducted October 26-30. Compared with the center's mid-October survey, Donalds' margin has narrowed by roughly six points and Moody's by roughly eight, and the generic congressional ballot has narrowed with them: Republicans lead 49-46, a 3-point edge that stood at 9 points in mid-October. About 2 percent of likely voters remain undecided in the governor's race and 3 percent in the Senate race.

The poll's co-directors frame the close as a turnout race now. Gustavo Venturelli, an assistant professor of political science at Stetson and a co-director of the center, said the headline is a real tightening, with margins roughly half of mid-October's — and, with 55 percent of likely voters in the survey saying they have already cast a ballot, much of the election is no longer about persuasion but about who shows up between now and Tuesday.

None of the three proposed constitutional amendments reaches the 60 percent support required to pass in this survey: Amendment 1 draws 46 percent support, Amendment 2 draws 57 percent, and Amendment 3 — the homestead-exemption measure — draws 53 percent, down from 56 percent in mid-October. Co-director Kelly Smith said support for the measures is softening as Election Day nears, leaving the still-unsure voters to decide how close the proposals come. Duval County voters finish early voting today, Sunday, ahead of Tuesday's Election Day.